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Castrovillari vs Roccella Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Bonanno T.
(Penalty)
62' Event
Puntoriere M.

AI Match Summary

Castrovillari in this Serie D - Group I 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castrovillari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Castrovillari
20%
Draws
40%
Roccella
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Roccella haven't matched Castrovillari's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Castrovillari a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Castrovillari Clean Sheet 16%
Roccella Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrovillari Roccella
Matches Played 42 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 16 5
Losses 19 20
Goals Scored 0.98 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Roccella vs Castrovillari
1:1
Apr 7, 2021 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs Roccella
2:0
Mar 1, 2020 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs Roccella
0:2
Oct 27, 2019 Serie D - Group I
Roccella vs Castrovillari
1:1
Feb 10, 2019 Serie D - Group I
Roccella vs Castrovillari
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrovillari Compare

Top Goalscorer Puntoriere M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Roccella Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrovillari 66 / 100
Roccella 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrovillari Roccella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castrovillari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Roccella has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Castrovillari's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 42 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Away concern: Roccella has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castrovillari VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrovillari

(Home)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Licata
3 : 1
Castrovillari
21 Apr
Castrovillari
1 : 1
Portici 1906
14 Apr
Siracusa
3 : 1
Castrovillari
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1
San Luca
Page 1 of 9

Roccella

(Away)
03 Jul
FC Messina
7 : 1
Roccella
16 Jun
Roccella
1 : 1
Castrovillari
13 Jun
Gelbison
4 : 0
Roccella
30 May
Roccella
2 : 1
Biancavilla
23 May
Roccella
0 : 1
AS Acireale
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ACR Messina 34 21 11 2 66:25 74
2 FC Messina 34 21 9 4 59:25 72
3 Gelbison 34 19 9 6 54:32 66
4 San Luca 34 17 7 10 46:38 58
5 AS Acireale 34 17 6 11 51:32 57
6 Dattilo 34 16 4 14 51:47 52
7 Rotonda 34 13 10 11 31:33 49
8 Santa Maria Cilento 34 10 15 9 43:29 45
9 Biancavilla 34 14 4 16 43:47 45
10 Licata 34 11 10 13 36:39 43
11 Castrovillari 34 10 11 13 39:37 41
12 Paterno 34 10 9 15 28:35 39
13 Cittanovese 34 10 9 15 42:51 39
14 S. Agata 34 8 12 14 32:48 36
15 Troina 34 9 9 16 27:47 36
16 Rende 34 9 7 18 38:58 34
17 Marina di Ragusa 34 8 9 17 38:58 33
18 Roccella 34 5 5 24 25:68 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2020/2021 (Play Offs)