Sport Picks
Castrovillari vs San Luca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 
Match Events
43'
43'
Palma M.
66'
66'
Palma M.
67'
67'
Cosenza C.
AI Match Summary
Castrovillari in this Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castrovillari.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castrovillari
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to San Luca lately — more wins on the board than Castrovillari.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Castrovillari Clean Sheet 20%
San Luca Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castrovillari | San Luca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 12 | 10 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.89 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs San Luca
2:1
Nov 26, 2023 Serie D - Group I
San Luca vs Castrovillari
3:3
Apr 30, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs San Luca
1:1
Jan 18, 2023 Serie D - Group I
San Luca vs Castrovillari
2:1
Feb 2, 2022 Serie D - Group I
San Luca vs Castrovillari
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castrovillari Compare
Top Goalscorer Palma M.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
San Luca Compare
Top Goalscorer Apostu A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castrovillari 31 / 100
San Luca 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castrovillari San Luca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castrovillari Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Castrovillari scored in 64% of their last 28 games.
San Luca let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
San Luca's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Castrovillari VS San Luca
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Castrovillari
(Home) 05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2 Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Licata
3 : 1 Castrovillari
21 Apr
Castrovillari
1 : 1 Portici 1906
14 Apr
Siracusa
3 : 1 Castrovillari
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1 San Luca
Page 1 of 6
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2 Nuova Gioiese
21 Apr
Castrovillari
1 : 1 Portici 1906
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1 San Luca
24 Mar
Castrovillari
0 : 1 AS Acireale
10 Mar
Castrovillari
1 : 1 Igea Virtus
Page 1 of 3
San Luca
(Away) 12 May
San Luca
0 : 2 Locri 1909
05 May
Canicatti
4 : 2 San Luca
28 Apr
San Luca
0 : 1 Real Casalnuovo
21 Apr
Akragas
1 : 2 San Luca
14 Apr
San Luca
0 : 1 Vibonese
Page 1 of 6
05 May
Canicatti
4 : 2 San Luca
21 Apr
Akragas
1 : 2 San Luca
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1 San Luca
24 Mar
USD Ragusa
3 : 2 San Luca
10 Mar
Nuova Gioiese
2 : 1 San Luca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trapani | 34 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 95:15 | 94 |
| 2 | Siracusa | 34 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 79:26 | 81 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 67:29 | 72 |
| 4 | Reggina | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 54:25 | 65 |
| 5 | AS Acireale | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 39:41 | 54 |
| 6 | S. Agata | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 46:35 | 52 |
| 7 | Real Casalnuovo | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 52:49 | 51 |
| 8 | USD Ragusa | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 41:38 | 50 |
| 9 | Canicatti | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 55:51 | 48 |
| 10 | Igea Virtus | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 38:40 | 45 |
| 11 | Licata | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 43:54 | 43 |
| 12 | Akragas | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 42:53 | 42 |
| 13 | Sancataldese | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32:43 | 37 |
| 14 | Portici 1906 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 32:55 | 32 |
| 15 | San Luca | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 37:55 | 29 |
| 16 | Locri 1909 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 34:68 | 28 |
| 17 | Castrovillari | 34 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 29:76 | 17 |
| 18 | Nuova Gioiese | 34 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 18:80 | 11 |
| 19 | Lamezia Terme | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)
