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Castrovillari vs Siracusa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Cosenza C.
40' Event
Alma G.
54' Event
Maggio D.

AI Match Summary

Siracusa in this Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Siracusa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Castrovillari
30%
Draws
47%
Siracusa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Siracusa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Castrovillari haven't matched Siracusa's recent run of results.
  • Siracusa are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.400000000000006%
Castrovillari Clean Sheet 19%
Siracusa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrovillari Siracusa
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 2 10
Draws 12 11
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.89 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Siracusa vs Castrovillari
3:1
Dec 3, 2023 Serie D - Group I
Castrovillari vs Siracusa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrovillari Compare

Top Goalscorer Cosenza C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Siracusa Compare

Top Goalscorer Alma G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maggio D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrovillari 24 / 100
Siracusa 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrovillari Siracusa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Siracusa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Siracusa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Castrovillari's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Solid form: Castrovillari remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Siracusa
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrovillari

(Home)
05 May
Castrovillari
0 : 2
Nuova Gioiese
28 Apr
Licata
3 : 1
Castrovillari
21 Apr
Castrovillari
1 : 1
Portici 1906
14 Apr
Siracusa
3 : 1
Castrovillari
07 Apr
Castrovillari
2 : 1
San Luca
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Siracusa

(Away)
04 Oct
Milazzo
1 : 0
Siracusa
27 Sept
Siracusa
1 : 0
ASD Modica Calcio
20 Sept
Digiesse PraiaTortora
0 : 0
Siracusa
16 Sept
Siracusa
2 : 1
Gela
12 Sept
Vibonese
1 : 1
Siracusa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trapani 34 30 4 0 95:15 94
2 Siracusa 34 25 6 3 79:26 81
3 Vibonese 34 22 6 6 67:29 72
4 Reggina 34 19 8 7 54:25 65
5 AS Acireale 34 15 9 10 39:41 54
6 S. Agata 34 15 7 12 46:35 52
7 Real Casalnuovo 34 15 6 13 52:49 51
8 USD Ragusa 34 14 8 12 41:38 50
9 Canicatti 34 14 6 14 55:51 48
10 Igea Virtus 34 13 6 15 38:40 45
11 Licata 34 12 7 15 43:54 43
12 Akragas 34 12 6 16 42:53 42
13 Sancataldese 34 9 10 15 32:43 37
14 Portici 1906 34 8 8 18 32:55 32
15 San Luca 34 6 12 16 37:55 29
16 Locri 1909 34 7 7 20 34:68 28
17 Castrovillari 34 2 12 20 29:76 17
18 Nuova Gioiese 34 3 2 29 18:80 11
19 Lamezia Terme 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2023/2024 (Play Out)