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Castrumfavara vs Sancataldese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

85' Event
Piazza A.

AI Match Summary

Castrumfavara in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castrumfavara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Castrumfavara
30%
Draws
58%
Sancataldese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sancataldese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

12% / Low Confidence
  • Sancataldese haven't matched Castrumfavara's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Castrumfavara Clean Sheet 68%
Sancataldese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castrumfavara Sancataldese
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 5 6
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 1.16 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.91 0.78
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Sancataldese
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Sancataldese vs Castrumfavara
2:1
Oct 22, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Sancataldese vs Castrumfavara
2:3
Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Castrumfavara vs Sancataldese
1:1
Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Sancataldese vs Castrumfavara
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castrumfavara Compare

Top Goalscorer Piazza A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.47
Avg xA / game 0.95

Sancataldese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.43

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castrumfavara 41 / 100
Sancataldese 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castrumfavara Sancataldese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castrumfavara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sancataldese has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Castrumfavara scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Castrumfavara remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castrumfavara VS Sancataldese
2.25 Goals Scored 0.57
1 Goals Conceded 1.57
88% Over 1.5 57%
75% Over 2.5 29%
50% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Castrumfavara

(Home)
04 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 0
Castrumfavara
27 Sept
Castrumfavara
0 : 1
Calcio Avola
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Castrumfavara
1 : 1
Licata
13 Sept
Gela
2 : 1
Castrumfavara
Page 1 of 7

Sancataldese

(Away)
03 May
A.C. Savoia
3 : 0
Sancataldese
26 Apr
Sancataldese
1 : 1
Lamezia
19 Apr
USD Ragusa
0 : 0
Sancataldese
12 Apr
Sancataldese
0 : 1
Gelbison
02 Apr
Vibonese
0 : 2
Sancataldese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)