Sport Picks
Match Events
34'
34'
Cordeiro F.
48'
48'
Bueno A.
(Penalty)
57'
57'
Gonzalez J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castuera
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Castuera haven't matched Jaraiz's recent run of results.
- Model gives Castuera a 59% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Castuera Clean Sheet 20%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Castuera | Jaraiz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 34 |
| Wins | 7 | 13 |
| Draws | 4 | 12 |
| Losses | 17 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.29 | 0.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Jaraiz
3:3
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Castuera
2:1
Apr 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Castuera
2:1
Dec 3, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Jaraiz
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Castuera Compare
Top Goalscorer Gonzalez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65
Jaraiz Compare
Top Goalscorer Cordeiro F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ralero R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Castuera 85 / 100
Jaraiz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Castuera Jaraiz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castuera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.25 goals when they meet.
Castuera scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Jaraiz let in goals in 74% of their last 34 matches.
Castuera went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Castuera VS Jaraiz
1.33 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
33% Over 2.5 25%
17% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Castuera
(Home) 27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0 UP Plasencia
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2 Castuera
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0 Castuera
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0 Gevora
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0 Castuera
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0 UP Plasencia
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0 Gevora
04 May
Castuera
1 : 2 CF Trujillo
17 Apr
Castuera
1 : 2 Puebla de la Calzada
06 Apr
Castuera
3 : 3 Jaraiz
Page 1 of 3
Jaraiz
(Away) 04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0 Jaraiz
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1 SP Villafranca
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3 Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2 Pueblonuevo
Page 1 of 7
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0 Jaraiz
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0 Jaraiz
10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1 Jaraiz
26 Apr
AD Llerenense
1 : 1 Jaraiz
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 73:22 | 75 |
| 2 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 65:28 | 71 |
| 3 | Jaraiz | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 65:40 | 69 |
| 4 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 58:28 | 68 |
| 5 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:20 | 63 |
| 6 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 58:38 | 58 |
| 7 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 31:31 | 54 |
| 8 | Jerez CF | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 50:48 | 51 |
| 9 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 55:55 | 47 |
| 10 | Moralo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 52:50 | 46 |
| 11 | Montijo | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 35:34 | 45 |
| 12 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42:71 | 36 |
| 13 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 14 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 35:56 | 32 |
| 15 | Castuera | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 46:64 | 29 |
| 16 | CF Trujillo | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 32:63 | 28 |
| 17 | Arroyo | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32:70 | 22 |
| 18 | Olivenza FC | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 26:79 | 17 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
