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Castuera vs UP Plasencia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Blanco B.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between Castuera and UP Plasencia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castuera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Castuera
20%
Draws
15%
UP Plasencia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castuera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • UP Plasencia haven't matched Castuera's recent run of results.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Castuera taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and UP Plasencia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Castuera Clean Sheet 20%
UP Plasencia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castuera UP Plasencia
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 7 6
Draws 4 6
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.43 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs UP Plasencia
1:0
Jan 13, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs UP Plasencia
1:2
Aug 26, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
UP Plasencia vs Castuera
2:0
Apr 7, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
UP Plasencia vs Castuera
5:2
Nov 12, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs UP Plasencia
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castuera 85 / 100
UP Plasencia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castuera UP Plasencia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castuera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Castuera found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

UP Plasencia let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Castuera went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castuera VS UP Plasencia
1.13 Goals Scored 0.29
2 Goals Conceded 1.14
88% Over 1.5 29%
75% Over 2.5 29%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Castuera

(Home)
27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0
UP Plasencia
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2
Castuera
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0
Castuera
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0
Gevora
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0
Castuera
Page 1 of 6

UP Plasencia

(Away)
27 Sept
Castuera
1 : 0
UP Plasencia
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3
Puebla de la Calzada
13 Sept
Gevora
4 : 2
UP Plasencia
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
31 Aug
Jaraiz
0 : 0
UP Plasencia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
10 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
11 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
12 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
13 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
15 SP Villafranca 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)