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Catanzaro vs Avellino

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Cancellotti T.
41' Event
Pontisso S.
Assist: Petriccione J.
51'
Di Francesco F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Catanzaro advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Catanzaro
15%
Draws
59%
Avellino
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Avellino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Avellino carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 59% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Avellino arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Catanzaro, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Catanzaro have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Catanzaro Clean Sheet 10%
Avellino Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Catanzaro Avellino
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.83 2.94
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 3.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Avellino
3:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Catanzaro
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Avellino
1:0
Mar 4, 2023 Serie C - Group C
Catanzaro vs Avellino
4:1
Nov 16, 2022 Coppa Italia Serie C
Catanzaro vs Avellino
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Catanzaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Pontisso S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cassandro T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Avellino Compare

Avg xG / game 2.9
Avg xA / game 1.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Catanzaro 30 / 100
Avellino 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Catanzaro Avellino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Avellino Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Catanzaro scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Avellino let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Catanzaro stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Catanzaro VS Avellino
1.5 Goals Scored 5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Catanzaro

(Home)
12 Sept
Catanzaro
1 : 0
Carrarese
05 Sept
Sudtirol
2 : 0
Catanzaro
30 Aug
Pisa
2 : 1
Catanzaro
21 Aug
Vicenza
3 : 2
Catanzaro
15 Aug
Catanzaro
2 : 3
Sudtirol
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Avellino

(Away)
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
29 Aug
Avellino
3 : 0
Vicenza
22 Aug
Avellino
1 : 2
Arezzo
14 Aug
Monza
3 : 0
Avellino
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Monza -
TBD -
Modena 0
Juve Stabia 1
Palermo -
TBD -
Catanzaro 3
Avellino 0
Semi-finals
Monza 4
Juve Stabia 3
Palermo 2
Catanzaro 3
Final
Monza 2
Catanzaro 2