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Stadium Background

Catanzaro vs Avellino

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Cancellotti T.
41' Event
Pontisso S.
Assist: Petriccione J.
51'
Di Francesco F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Catanzaro advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Catanzaro
6%
Draws
90%
Avellino
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Avellino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Catanzaro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Avellino taking it.
  • Catanzaro have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Catanzaro, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Catanzaro have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Catanzaro Clean Sheet 10%
Avellino Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Catanzaro Avellino
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.88 4.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 4.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Avellino
3:0
Apr 11, 2026 Serie B
Avellino vs Catanzaro
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Avellino
1:0
Mar 4, 2023 Serie C - Group C
Catanzaro vs Avellino
4:1
Nov 16, 2022 Coppa Italia Serie C
Catanzaro vs Avellino
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Catanzaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Pontisso S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cassandro T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Avellino Compare

Avg xG / game 4.21
Avg xA / game 2.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Catanzaro 10 / 100
Avellino 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Catanzaro Avellino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AVE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Catanzaro scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Avellino let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Catanzaro stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Catanzaro VS Avellino
1.88 Goals Scored 4.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Catanzaro

(Home)
29 Jul
Catanzaro
3 : 1
Paradiso
29 May
Monza
0 : 2
Catanzaro
24 May
Catanzaro
0 : 2
Monza
20 May
Palermo
2 : 0
Catanzaro
17 May
Catanzaro
3 : 0
Palermo
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Avellino

(Away)
28 Jul
Avellino
3 : 1
Real Forio 2014
26 Jul
Sambenedettese
0 : 5
Avellino
22 Jul
Avellino
3 : 1
Scafatese
19 Jul
Avellino
24 : 0
Castel di Sangro
12 May
Catanzaro
3 : 0
Avellino
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Monza-
TBD-
Modena0
Juve Stabia1
Palermo-
TBD-
Catanzaro3
Avellino0
Semi-finals
Monza4
Juve Stabia3
Palermo2
Catanzaro3
Final
Monza2
Catanzaro2