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Catda vs Rwenzori Lions - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Big League
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AI Match Summary

The Big League game between Catda and Rwenzori Lions finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Catda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Catda
15%
Draws
28%
Rwenzori Lions
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Catda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Catda carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Catda's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61.8%
Catda Clean Sheet 20%
Rwenzori Lions Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Catda Rwenzori Lions
Matches Played 29 3
Wins 10 1
Draws 7 0
Losses 12 2
Goals Scored 0.79 0.33
Goals Conceded 1.03 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.78 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Big League
Catda vs Rwenzori Lions
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Catda 85 / 100
Rwenzori Lions 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Catda Rwenzori Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Catda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Rwenzori Lions conceded in 67% of 3 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Catda went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Catda found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Catda VS Rwenzori Lions
0.88 Goals Scored 0.33
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.67
63% Over 1.5 33%
50% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Catda

(Home)
04 Oct
SC Volcanoes
1 : 0
Catda
27 Sept
Catda
2 : 0
Rwenzori Lions
06 Jun
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0 : 1
Catda
23 May
Catda
1 : 0
Onduparaka
17 May
Nebbi Central
1 : 1
Catda
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Rwenzori Lions

(Away)
04 Oct
Rwenzori Lions
1 : 0
Iganga United
27 Sept
Catda
2 : 0
Rwenzori Lions
18 Mar
Kampala City
4 : 0
Rwenzori Lions

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paidha Black Angels 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
2 Young Elephant Academy 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Amus College FC 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
4 Pakwach Young Stars 2 1 0 1 3:1 3
5 Kiyinda Boys 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
6 Catda 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 SC Volcanoes 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
8 Calvary 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Iganga United 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Rwenzori Lions 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
11 Buwambo United 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
12 Onduparaka 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
13 Kaaro Karungi 3 0 0 3 0:6 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)