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Catuense vs Ipitanga

Brazil Brazil

Baiano 2 2013
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Catuense play Ipitanga in the Baiano 2 2013. Catuense are favorites here. Recently, Catuense averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.72 conceded. Ipitanga averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. In past meetings, Catuense won 2, Ipitanga won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 30, 2013 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.56 for Catuense and 1.06 for Ipitanga. This points to a Catuense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Catuense
20%
Draws
23%
Ipitanga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Catuense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Catuense picked up more points recently compared to Ipitanga.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.56 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Catuense Clean Sheet 22%
Ipitanga Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Catuense Ipitanga
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 3
Draws 9 3
Losses 16 24
Goals Scored 1.13 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.72 2.8
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 4.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2013 Baiano 2
Catuense vs Ipitanga
1:2
May 1, 2013 Baiano 2
Ipitanga vs Catuense
1:2
Mar 2, 2007 Baiano
Catuense vs Ipitanga
1:1
Feb 24, 2007 Baiano
Ipitanga vs Catuense
1:4
Jan 31, 2006 Baiano
Ipitanga vs Catuense
4:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Catuense 56 / 100
Ipitanga 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Catuense Ipitanga

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Catuense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Catuense & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.3%
2.04
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.4%
1.52
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Catuense attacking → ← attacking Ipitanga

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Catuense scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

Ipitanga let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Catuense went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Ipitanga lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 12
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Galicia841310:913
2Catuense84139:813
3Camacari841310:1213
4EC Ypiranga832313:711
5Ipitanga82157:137
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Itabuna850311:515
2CE Flamengo842213:914
3Colo Colo841311:813
4Jequie82339:139
5AD Astro81255:145