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CD Ariznabarra vs Urgatzi

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CD Ariznabarra in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2020/2021 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored CD Ariznabarra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
CD Ariznabarra
15%
Draws
0%
Urgatzi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CD Ariznabarra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • CD Ariznabarra have won more games recently than Urgatzi.
  • CD Ariznabarra are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
CD Ariznabarra Clean Sheet 19%
Urgatzi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Ariznabarra Urgatzi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 3
Draws 9 2
Losses 16 25
Goals Scored 0.9 0.53
Goals Conceded 1.57 3.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Ariznabarra vs Urgatzi
5:1
Apr 24, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Urgatzi vs CD Ariznabarra
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Ariznabarra 85 / 100
Urgatzi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Ariznabarra Urgatzi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Ariznabarra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Urgatzi conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Urgatzi's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

CD Ariznabarra found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

CD Ariznabarra VS Urgatzi
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
2 Goals Conceded 3.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Ariznabarra

(Home)
12 Jun
CD Ariznabarra
2 : 3
Balmaseda
05 Jun
Somorrostro
1 : 1
CD Ariznabarra
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1
Urgatzi
22 May
Tolosa
4 : 0
CD Ariznabarra
16 May
CD Ariznabarra
1 : 2
Aurrera Ondarroa
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Urgatzi

(Away)
12 Jun
SCD Durango
1 : 0
Urgatzi
05 Jun
Urgatzi
1 : 2
Sodupe
29 May
CD Ariznabarra
5 : 1
Urgatzi
23 May
Urgatzi
0 : 2
Lagun Onak
15 May
Santurtzi
4 : 1
Urgatzi
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