Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CD Badajoz vs Castuera

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Bermudez J.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

CD Badajoz in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored CD Badajoz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
CD Badajoz
15%
Draws
16%
Castuera
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CD Badajoz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • CD Badajoz have won more games recently than Castuera.
  • Model gives CD Badajoz a 69% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • CD Badajoz have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
CD Badajoz Clean Sheet 68%
Castuera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Badajoz Castuera
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 22 6
Draws 6 6
Losses 3 17
Goals Scored 2.1 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.77 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Badajoz vs Castuera
1:0
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs CD Badajoz
0:2
Apr 12, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Badajoz vs Castuera
3:0
Nov 23, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs CD Badajoz
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Badajoz 95 / 100
Castuera 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Badajoz Castuera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Badajoz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: CD Badajoz scored in 87% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Castuera conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: CD Badajoz stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

CD Badajoz VS Castuera
2.13 Goals Scored 1.67
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.67
75% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 33%
13% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Badajoz

(Home)
13 Sept
Xerez CD
1 : 2
CD Badajoz
06 Sept
CD Badajoz
2 : 1
Tenerife B
30 Aug
Pueblonuevo
0 : 5
CD Badajoz
19 Aug
Puebla de la Calzada
0 : 2
CD Badajoz
15 Aug
CD Badajoz
1 : 1
Linares
Page 1 of 7

Castuera

(Away)
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0
Castuera
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0
Gevora
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0
Castuera
11 May
CD Badajoz
1 : 0
Castuera
04 May
Castuera
1 : 2
CF Trujillo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 23 6 5 73:22 75
2 CD Azuaga 34 20 11 3 65:28 71
3 Jaraiz 34 21 6 7 65:40 69
4 AD Llerenense 34 21 5 8 58:28 68
5 CD Badajoz 34 17 12 5 54:20 63
6 CD Diocesano 34 17 7 10 58:38 58
7 Santa Amalia 34 16 6 12 31:31 54
8 Jerez CF 34 14 9 11 50:48 51
9 SP Villafranca 34 14 5 15 55:55 47
10 Moralo 34 13 7 14 52:50 46
11 Montijo 34 11 12 11 35:34 45
12 Pueblonuevo 34 9 9 16 42:71 36
13 CD Calamonte 34 8 9 17 36:48 33
14 Puebla de la Calzada 34 7 11 16 35:56 32
15 Castuera 34 7 8 19 46:64 29
16 CF Trujillo 34 6 10 18 32:63 28
17 Arroyo 34 5 7 22 32:70 22
18 Olivenza FC 34 3 8 23 26:79 17
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)