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Stadium Background

CD Boiro vs Ribadeo FC

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 1 2014/2015
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with CD Boiro averaging 1.1 xG at home and Ribadeo FC producing 1.1 xG on their travels. Ribadeo FC will likely drop deep and defend, forcing CD Boiro to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Our model gives the edge to CD Boiro with a 45% win probability.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
CD Boiro
31%
Draws
24%
Ribadeo FC
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: CD Boiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • CD Boiro picked up more points recently compared to Ribadeo FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
CD Boiro Clean Sheet 21%
Ribadeo FC Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Boiro Ribadeo FC
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 6
Draws 11 10
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.53 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

17.04.16 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
CD Boiro vs Ribadeo FC
3:0
29.11.15 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Ribadeo FC vs CD Boiro
2:3
29.03.15 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
CD Boiro vs Ribadeo FC
2:2
09.11.14 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Ribadeo FC vs CD Boiro
3:2

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

CD Boiro

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Ribadeo FC

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Boiro Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
7 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
5 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.68

Ribadeo FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
8 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.82

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Ribadeo FC • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder CD Boiro • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Ribadeo FC • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker CD Boiro • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Boiro 45 / 100
Ribadeo FC 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Boiro Ribadeo FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: CD Boiro or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

CD Boiro will likely press early to force mistakes.

CD Boiro 59%
Ribadeo FC 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Ribadeo FC should settle down and try to slow the pace.

CD Boiro 54%
Ribadeo FC 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

CD Boiro 51%
Ribadeo FC 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect CD Boiro to push more players wide.

CD Boiro 56%
Ribadeo FC 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

CD Boiro 51%
Ribadeo FC 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

CD Boiro 62%
Ribadeo FC 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CD Boiro attacking → ← attacking Ribadeo FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Boiro have scored in 90% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Ribadeo FC concede most goals (48%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 24 shots per game, well above the league median.

CD Boiro are unbeaten in 6 straight matches when scoring first.

Ribadeo FC have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: CD Boiro wants a European spot, while Ribadeo FC is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 28
1.10 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2