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CD Choloma vs Marathon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional Estadio Ruben Deras, Choloma
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Fajardo A.
26'
Sevilla C.
43'
Castillo H.

AI Match Summary

Marathon in this Liga Nacional matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Marathon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
CD Choloma
20%
Draws
40%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Marathon have won more games recently than CD Choloma.
  • Win probability leans CD Choloma's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
CD Choloma Clean Sheet 68%
Marathon Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Choloma Marathon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
CD Choloma vs Marathon
0:1
May 1, 2026 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs CD Choloma
0:1
Mar 11, 2026 Liga Nacional
CD Choloma vs Marathon
0:0
Nov 27, 2025 Liga Nacional
CD Choloma vs Marathon
0:4
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Nacional
Marathon vs CD Choloma
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Choloma Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Marathon Compare

Top Goalscorer Paz J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Choloma 68 / 100
Marathon 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Choloma Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Choloma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Choloma's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: CD Choloma remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Marathon conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

CD Choloma VS Marathon
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Choloma

(Home)
19 Sept
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Estrella
13 Sept
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 0
CD Choloma
05 Sept
CD Choloma
0 : 0
Olancho
30 Aug
Real Espana
2 : 1
CD Choloma
23 Aug
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Platense
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
21 Sept
Juticalpa
3 : 2
Marathon
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
13 Sept
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
11 Sept
Marathon
2 : 2
Alajuelense
06 Sept
Marathon
5 : 0
Estrella
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 8 5 3 0 13:4 18
2 Olimpia 8 5 2 1 19:7 17
3 Marathon 8 5 2 1 14:6 17
4 Motagua 8 4 1 3 11:8 13
5 Genesis FC 8 3 2 3 10:6 11
6 Olancho 8 2 5 1 6:5 11
7 Estrella 8 2 3 3 13:16 9
8 Atletico Independiente 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
9 Lobos UPNFM 8 2 2 4 7:12 8
10 CD Choloma 8 2 1 5 6:8 7
11 Juticalpa 8 2 0 6 8:19 6
12 Platense 8 1 2 5 6:18 5
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Play Offs)
Relegation - Liga Nacional (Relegation)