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CD Colindres vs Castro

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
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Match Events

44' Event
Subisaga A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between CD Colindres and Castro finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Colindres.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
CD Colindres
30%
Draws
39%
Castro
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Castro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on CD Colindres taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
CD Colindres Clean Sheet 19%
Castro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Colindres Castro
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 0.77 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Colindres vs Castro
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Colindres
2:1
Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Colindres vs Castro
2:0
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Colindres
4:0
May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Castro vs CD Colindres
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Colindres Compare

Top Goalscorer Subisaga A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Castro Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Colindres 36 / 100
Castro 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Colindres Castro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castro has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

CD Colindres found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Solid form: CD Colindres remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

CD Colindres VS Castro
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Colindres

(Home)
09 May
CD Laredo
2 : 1
CD Colindres
03 May
CD Colindres
0 : 3
Bezana
25 Apr
Torina
2 : 0
CD Colindres
19 Apr
CD Colindres
3 : 0
CD Barquereno
12 Apr
SD Noja
2 : 2
CD Colindres
Page 1 of 7

Castro

(Away)
13 Sept
Castro
2 : 0
Solares
06 Sept
Selaya
0 : 0
Castro
09 May
Castro
0 : 2
CD Tropezon
03 May
UC Cartes
0 : 0
Castro
26 Apr
Castro
2 : 3
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)