Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CD Estepona vs Real Madrid C

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez, Estepona
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Pena H.
55' Event
Mesonero D.
58' Event
Ballarin D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with CD Estepona advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
CD Estepona
30%
Draws
29%
Real Madrid C
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CD Estepona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and CD Estepona come out ahead of Real Madrid C on wins alone.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • CD Estepona have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor CD Estepona, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
CD Estepona Clean Sheet 20%
Real Madrid C Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Estepona Real Madrid C
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.34 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
CD Estepona vs Real Madrid C
3:1
May 10, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Real Madrid C vs CD Estepona
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Estepona Compare

Top Goalscorer Pena H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ballarin D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Real Madrid C Compare

Top Goalscorer Mesonero D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Estepona 31 / 100
Real Madrid C 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Estepona Real Madrid C

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Estepona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

CD Estepona found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Real Madrid C's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Solid form: CD Estepona remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

CD Estepona VS Real Madrid C
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Estepona

(Home)
27 Sept
Tenerife B
2 : 1
CD Estepona
19 Sept
Puente Genil
0 : 2
CD Estepona
12 Sept
CD Estepona
1 : 4
Linares
05 Sept
CD Estepona
0 : 0
Xerez CD
16 May
CD Estepona
3 : 1
Real Madrid C
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Real Madrid C

(Away)
27 Sept
Atl. Madrid C
2 : 0
Real Madrid C
13 Sept
CF Talavera
0 : 0
Real Madrid C
06 Sept
Real Madrid C
0 : 0
Albacete B
29 Aug
Gimnastica Segoviana
0 : 1
Real Madrid C
21 Aug
Real Madrid C
0 : 2
Baleares
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Real Madrid C 3
CD Estepona 5
Castellon B 2
SD Logrones 4