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CD Mostoles vs Pozuelo de Alarcon

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

CD Mostoles play Pozuelo de Alarcon in the Tercera RFEF - Group 7. It looks like a close match. Recently, CD Mostoles averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Pozuelo de Alarcon averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, CD Mostoles won 3, Pozuelo de Alarcon won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 25, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for CD Mostoles and 1.19 for Pozuelo de Alarcon. This points to a CD Mostoles double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
CD Mostoles
27%
Draws
34%
Pozuelo de Alarcon
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: CD Mostoles

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • CD Mostoles picked up more points recently compared to Pozuelo de Alarcon.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
CD Mostoles Clean Sheet 20%
Pozuelo de Alarcon Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Mostoles Pozuelo de Alarcon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Pozuelo de Alarcon vs CD Mostoles
2:0
Dec 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Pozuelo de Alarcon
1:1
Mar 10, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Pozuelo de Alarcon
4:0
Oct 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Pozuelo de Alarcon vs CD Mostoles
2:3
Mar 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
CD Mostoles vs Pozuelo de Alarcon
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Mostoles Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Pozuelo de Alarcon Compare

Top Goalscorer Aham C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Mostoles 39 / 100
Pozuelo de Alarcon 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Mostoles Pozuelo de Alarcon

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: CD Mostoles or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

CD Mostoles attacking → ← attacking Pozuelo de Alarcon

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Mostoles scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Pozuelo de Alarcon let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

CD Mostoles went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Pozuelo de Alarcon lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 43
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atl. Madrid C341810683:4664
2Trival Valderas341861050:3660
3AD Torrejon34179857:4660
4CD Las Rozas341681058:4256
5Leganes B341591063:3354
6Union Adarve341581148:4253
7CD Mostoles341491151:4551
8San Sebastian Reyes B341213945:3549
9Pozuelo de Alarcon3412121040:3348
10Galapagar3411131042:4746
11Mexico341291345:4945
12Siello341351639:4544
13Alcorcon B3411111237:3444
14Villaverde San Andres3410131132:4443
15Carabanchel349111430:3638
16Tres Cantos341032140:6533
17Parla34762129:6627
18Ciudad de Madrid34572231:7622