Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CD Tropezon vs Arnedo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Santa Ana, Torrelavega
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Gago R.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with CD Tropezon advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
CD Tropezon
40%
Draws
29%
Arnedo
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arnedo come out ahead of CD Tropezon on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Arnedo arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor CD Tropezon, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors CD Tropezon here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
CD Tropezon Clean Sheet 20%
Arnedo Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Tropezon Arnedo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 19
Draws 4 8
Losses 8 3
Goals Scored 1.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arnedo vs CD Tropezon
2:0
Jun 13, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
CD Tropezon vs Arnedo
1:0
Oct 14, 2020 Copa Federacion
Arnedo vs CD Tropezon
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Tropezon Compare

Top Goalscorer Gago R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Arnedo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Tropezon 32 / 100
Arnedo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Tropezon Arnedo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Tropezon scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Arnedo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

CD Tropezon went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

CD Tropezon VS Arnedo
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Tropezon

(Home)
20 Jun
Arnedo
2 : 0
CD Tropezon
13 Jun
CD Tropezon
1 : 0
Arnedo
06 Jun
CD Laredo
0 : 1
CD Tropezon
31 May
CD Tropezon
0 : 0
CD Laredo
24 May
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Guarnizo
Page 1 of 6

Arnedo

(Away)
20 Jun
Arnedo
2 : 0
CD Tropezon
13 Jun
CD Tropezon
1 : 0
Arnedo
07 Jun
Arnedo
3 : 2
Oyonesa
31 May
Oyonesa
0 : 0
Arnedo
24 May
Arnedo
1 : 0
CD Calahorra
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
CD Tropezon 1
Arnedo 2
Real Murcia B 3
Pamplona 2
Guijuelo 2
Tamaraceite 3
Trival Valderas 0
La Nucia 1
Compostela 3
CF Badalona 2
Arenas Armilla 3
Pena Deportiva 6
Atletico Central 3
Caudal Deportivo 1
CD Badajoz 3
CD Cuarte 2
Leioa 1
Albacete B 2