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CD Tropezon vs SD Noja

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Gago R.
86' Event
Villasana A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 game between CD Tropezon and SD Noja finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Tropezon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
CD Tropezon
20%
Draws
11%
SD Noja
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Tropezon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and CD Tropezon come out ahead of SD Noja on wins alone.
  • Model gives CD Tropezon a 69% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • CD Tropezon have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
CD Tropezon Clean Sheet 68%
SD Noja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Tropezon SD Noja
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 20 4
Draws 4 5
Losses 8 21
Goals Scored 1.47 0.7
Goals Conceded 0.72 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
CD Tropezon vs SD Noja
2:0
Sep 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
SD Noja vs CD Tropezon
0:2
Sep 23, 2020 Club Friendly
CD Tropezon vs SD Noja
2:0
Feb 9, 2014 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
CD Tropezon vs SD Noja
3:1
Sep 28, 2013 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
SD Noja vs CD Tropezon
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Tropezon Compare

Top Goalscorer Gago R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Villasana A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

SD Noja Compare

Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Tropezon 95 / 100
SD Noja 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Tropezon SD Noja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Tropezon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Noja let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: CD Tropezon scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

CD Tropezon has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

CD Tropezon VS SD Noja
1.38 Goals Scored 0.83
0.5 Goals Conceded 3
63% Over 1.5 83%
38% Over 2.5 83%
25% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Tropezon

(Home)
12 Sept
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Selaya
06 Sept
CD Laredo
1 : 2
CD Tropezon
20 Jun
Arnedo
2 : 0
CD Tropezon
13 Jun
CD Tropezon
1 : 0
Arnedo
06 Jun
CD Laredo
0 : 1
CD Tropezon
Page 1 of 7

SD Noja

(Away)
09 May
SD Noja
2 : 2
UC Cartes
01 May
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
6 : 0
SD Noja
26 Apr
SD Noja
0 : 1
CD Revilla
18 Apr
Guarnizo
4 : 1
SD Noja
12 Apr
SD Noja
2 : 2
CD Colindres
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)