Sport Picks

Stadium Background

CD Vitoria vs Leioa

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Galarza A.
25' Event
Hidalgo A.
33' Event
Galarza A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 game between CD Vitoria and Leioa finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward CD Vitoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
CD Vitoria
20%
Draws
33%
Leioa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Vitoria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and CD Vitoria come out ahead of Leioa on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans CD Vitoria's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • CD Vitoria have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
CD Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%
Leioa Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric CD Vitoria Leioa
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 23 21
Draws 6 7
Losses 1 12
Goals Scored 1.87 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.47 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs CD Vitoria
0:3
Oct 1, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Vitoria vs Leioa
6:0
Apr 6, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
CD Vitoria vs Leioa
2:0
Dec 10, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs CD Vitoria
1:1
Apr 2, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs CD Vitoria
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CD Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Galarza A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hidalgo A.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Leioa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.07
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CD Vitoria 95 / 100
Leioa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
CD Vitoria Leioa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Vitoria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Vitoria found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Leioa conceded in 68% of 40 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: CD Vitoria stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Leioa
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

CD Vitoria

(Home)
11 May
CD Vitoria
2 : 2
Pasaia
04 May
Padura
0 : 1
CD Vitoria
01 May
CD Vitoria
2 : 0
Touring KE
27 Apr
San Ignacio
2 : 0
CD Vitoria
20 Apr
CD Vitoria
2 : 0
Beasain
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Leioa

(Away)
19 Aug
Leioa
1 : 1
Portugalete
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11
Ath Bilbao
21 Jun
Albacete B
2 : 0
Leioa
13 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Albacete B
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Vitoria 34 25 7 2 65:17 82
2 Basconia 34 18 10 6 54:32 64
3 Beasain 34 19 6 9 55:36 63
4 SD Deusto 34 17 10 7 45:29 61
5 Portugalete 34 17 9 8 54:32 60
6 Lagun Onak 34 16 9 9 43:33 57
7 SCD Durango 34 14 8 12 47:47 50
8 San Ignacio 34 12 11 11 49:44 47
9 Leioa 34 13 6 15 46:51 45
10 Urduliz FT 34 11 9 14 38:47 42
11 Derio 34 11 9 14 35:35 42
12 Alaves C 34 10 10 14 34:42 40
13 Touring KE 34 9 12 13 39:49 39
14 Padura 34 9 11 14 33:47 38
15 Pasaia 34 9 7 18 23:42 34
16 Anaitasuna FT 34 8 8 18 35:51 32
17 Aurrera Ondarroa 34 5 9 20 26:54 24
18 Anorga 34 3 9 22 31:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 (Play Offs)