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Ceara vs Criciuma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Castelão, Fortaleza
Ceara Logo

Ceara

1 - 0
FT
Criciuma Logo

Criciuma

Our Tip

Match Events

44'
Marcelo Hermes
48'
Rodrigo
54'
Sub
Otero R. In: Romarinho
Out: Otero R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ceara in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ceara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Ceara
20%
Draws
34%
Criciuma
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ceara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Criciuma have won more games recently than Ceara.
  • Model gives Ceara a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Ceara Clean Sheet 68%
Criciuma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceara Criciuma
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 10 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.32 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 8, 2026 Serie B
Ceara vs Criciuma
1:0
Jun 16, 2026 Serie B
Criciuma vs Ceara
1:1
Sep 2, 2023 Serie B
Ceara vs Criciuma
1:0
May 21, 2023 Serie B
Criciuma vs Ceara
1:2
Nov 18, 2017 Serie B
Criciuma vs Ceara
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Lenny Lobato
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Criciuma Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceara 59 / 100
Criciuma 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceara Criciuma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ceara scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Ceara went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Criciuma has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ceara VS Criciuma
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceara

(Home)
03 Oct
Avai
0 : 1
Ceara
26 Sept
Operario-PR
2 : 2
Ceara
18 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Novorizontino
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
10 Sept
Atletico GO
2 : 1
Ceara
Page 1 of 7

Criciuma

(Away)
02 Oct
Londrina
0 : 2
Criciuma
27 Sept
Criciuma
3 : 0
Avai
22 Sept
Criciuma
0 : 2
Operario-PR
13 Sept
Atletico GO
4 : 0
Criciuma
09 Sept
Criciuma
0 : 2
EC Juventude
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 EC Juventude 32 17 8 7 37:19 59
2 Vila Nova FC 32 17 7 8 44:31 58
3 Fortaleza 32 15 11 6 37:27 56
4 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 52:27 54
5 Criciuma 31 15 8 8 33:27 53
6 Atletico GO 32 14 10 8 40:30 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 49:45 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 44:34 50
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 44:43 48
10 Cuiaba 32 11 14 7 32:25 47
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 32:40 45
12 Sao Bernardo 32 12 9 11 44:34 45
13 Nautico 31 11 9 11 39:38 42
14 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 38:37 42
15 Ceara 31 10 9 12 34:39 39
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 36:38 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 32:43 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 40:47 28
19 America MG 32 4 5 23 21:53 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 17:68 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)