Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ceara vs Ponte Preta

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
de Oliveira J.
19'
de Oliveira J.
19'
de Oliveira J.

AI Match Summary

Ceara in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ceara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Ceara
20%
Draws
22%
Ponte Preta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ceara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Ceara have won more games recently than Ponte Preta.
  • Model gives Ceara a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Ceara Clean Sheet 68%
Ponte Preta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceara Ponte Preta
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 3
Draws 8 4
Losses 14 21
Goals Scored 1.17 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.47 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Serie B
Ceara vs Ponte Preta
2:0
Apr 2, 2026 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Ceara
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Serie B
Ceara vs Ponte Preta
1:0
Jun 26, 2024 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Ceara
3:1
Aug 20, 2023 Serie B
Ceara vs Ponte Preta
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucca
1 Goals
Assists Leader Giulio
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Ponte Preta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceara 95 / 100
Ponte Preta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceara Ponte Preta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ponte Preta let in goals in 89% of their last 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Ceara scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Ceara has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ceara VS Ponte Preta
1.13 Goals Scored 0.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceara

(Home)
26 Sept
Operario-PR
2 : 2
Ceara
18 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Novorizontino
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
10 Sept
Atletico GO
2 : 1
Ceara
05 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Sport Recife
Page 1 of 6

Ponte Preta

(Away)
20 Sept
Ponte Preta
1 : 0
CRB
15 Sept
Londrina
6 : 0
Ponte Preta
11 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
06 Sept
Ponte Preta
0 : 2
Sao Bernardo
30 Aug
America MG
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vila Nova FC 30 16 6 8 43:31 54
2 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 49:27 51
3 Fortaleza 29 14 9 6 33:24 51
4 EC Juventude 29 14 8 7 31:19 50
5 Atletico GO 30 13 10 7 37:27 49
6 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 43:38 48
7 Criciuma 29 13 8 8 28:27 47
8 CRB 29 13 6 10 42:41 45
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 40:32 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 30:22 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 30:36 42
12 Sao Bernardo 30 11 9 10 40:31 42
13 Nautico 30 11 8 11 38:37 41
14 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 34:31 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 33:39 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32:36 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30:38 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 39:43 28
19 America MG 29 4 5 20 21:49 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 17:62 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)