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Ceilandense vs Paranoa

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Ceilandense Logo

Ceilandense

3 - 4
FT
Paranoa Logo

Paranoa

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Thiago Andre
15' Event
Lucas Victor
18' Event
Thiago Andre
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Paranoa in this Brasiliense 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paranoa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Ceilandense
15%
Draws
36%
Paranoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ceilandense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paranoa lately — more wins on the board than Ceilandense.
  • Model gives Ceilandense a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Paranoa have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Ceilandense Clean Sheet 68%
Paranoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandense Paranoa
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 3 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 21 12
Goals Scored 0.6 1.26
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 1.42
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandense vs Paranoa
3:4
Jan 27, 2024 Brasiliense
Paranoa vs Ceilandense
4:3
Mar 14, 2020 Brasiliense
Ceilandense vs Paranoa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandense Compare

Top Goalscorer Rony
1 Goals
Assists Leader Junior Neves
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Paranoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Andre
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lucas Victor
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.29
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandense 95 / 100
Paranoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandense Paranoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceilandense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.67 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Paranoa conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Away concern: Paranoa has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Ceilandense scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandense VS Paranoa
1.17 Goals Scored 1
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.63
83% Over 1.5 63%
33% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandense

(Home)
08 Mar
Ceilandense
1 : 3
Sobradinho
22 Feb
Samambaia
0 : 1
Ceilandense
16 Feb
Legiao
1 : 1
Ceilandense
12 Feb
Ceilandense
3 : 4
Paranoa
09 Feb
Brasiliense
2 : 0
Ceilandense
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Paranoa

(Away)
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
21 Feb
Ceilandia
4 : 1
Paranoa
11 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 1
Brasiliense
07 Feb
Real Brasilia
4 : 5
Paranoa
31 Jan
Gama
4 : 1
Paranoa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)