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Stadium Background

Ceilandia vs ARUC

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estadio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Abadiao), Ceilândia
Ceilandia Logo

Ceilandia

3 - 0
FT
ARUC Logo

ARUC

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Magdiel
46' Event
Patrikao
60' Event
Patrikao
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ceilandia in this Brasiliense matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Ceilandia
30%
Draws
0%
ARUC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ceilandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • ARUC haven't matched Ceilandia's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Ceilandia a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 68%
ARUC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia ARUC
Matches Played 33 16
Wins 11 6
Draws 11 2
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.36 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2026 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs ARUC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Patrikao
2 Goals
Assists Leader Magdiel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

ARUC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 95 / 100
ARUC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia ARUC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceilandia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ceilandia scored in 85% of their last 33 outings.

Difficult form: ARUC registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

ARUC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 16 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS ARUC
1.38 Goals Scored 0.33
1.13 Goals Conceded 3
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 7

ARUC

(Away)
28 Feb
ARUC
1 : 4
Real Brasilia
21 Feb
Gama
2 : 0
ARUC
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
08 Feb
Brasiliense
2 : 0
ARUC
31 Jan
ARUC
0 : 1
Brasilia FC (DF)
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gama 9 7 2 0 15:4 23
2 Samambaia 9 6 2 1 21:5 20
3 Sobradinho 9 5 2 2 11:8 17
4 Ceilandia 9 5 1 3 17:12 16
5 Capital 9 4 3 2 19:10 15
6 Brasiliense 9 4 3 2 13:7 15
7 Real Brasilia 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
8 Paranoa 9 2 0 7 8:24 6
9 Brasilia FC (DF) 9 1 0 8 4:19 3
10 ARUC 9 1 0 8 3:20 3
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)