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Ceilandia vs Capital

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estadio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Abadiao), Ceilândia
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Tobinha
53' Event
Deysinho
57' Event
Alison Mira

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense game between Ceilandia and Capital finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Capital.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Ceilandia
6%
Draws
90%
Capital
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Capital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Capital carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Capital a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Brasiliense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 15%
Capital Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Capital
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 12 16
Draws 10 11
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.13 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Serie D
Capital vs Ceilandia
2:1
Apr 25, 2026 Serie D
Ceilandia vs Capital
1:2
Feb 7, 2026 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Capital
0:3
Jul 13, 2025 Serie D
Capital vs Ceilandia
2:2
May 3, 2025 Serie D
Ceilandia vs Capital
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Capital Compare

Top Goalscorer Tobinha
1 Goals
Assists Leader Deysinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 10 / 100
Capital 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Capital

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceilandia's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Defensive concern: Capital conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Ceilandia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS Capital
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 7

Capital

(Away)
12 Jul
Capital
1 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
04 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 0
Capital
27 Jun
Capital
4 : 0
Aparecidense
20 Jun
Aparecidense
1 : 1
Capital
07 Jun
Capital
2 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Gama972015:423
2Samambaia962121:520
3Sobradinho952211:817
4Ceilandia951317:1216
5Capital943219:1015
6Brasiliense943213:715
7Real Brasilia931511:1310
8Paranoa92078:246
9Brasilia FC (DF)91084:193
10ARUC91083:203
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)