Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ceilandia vs Gama

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Estadio Maria de Lourdes Abadia (Abadiao), Ceilândia
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Felipe Clemente
80' Event
Johnatan Cardoso

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Ceilandia
35%
Draws
37%
Gama
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gama

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Gama have won more games recently than Ceilandia.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Gama arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceilandia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 11%
Gama Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Gama
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 21
Draws 9 6
Losses 11 4
Goals Scored 1.27 1.71
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.74
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 Brasiliense
Gama vs Ceilandia
2:1
Mar 8, 2026 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Gama
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Brasiliense
Gama vs Ceilandia
2:1
Feb 17, 2025 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Gama
2:0
Mar 23, 2024 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Gama
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Johnatan Cardoso
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Gama Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Clemente
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 30 / 100
Gama 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Gama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gama Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceilandia found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Ceilandia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gama has conceded goals in 58% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS Gama
1.33 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 6

Gama

(Away)
30 Aug
Gama
0 : 0
ASA
23 Aug
ASA
2 : 0
Gama
16 Aug
Gama
4 : 0
EC Sao Jose (PA)
08 Aug
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 1
Gama
26 Jul
Gama
4 : 2
America RN
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Gama 3
Ceilandia 2
Samambaia 0
Sobradinho 1
Final
Gama 1
Sobradinho 0