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Ceilandia vs Santa Maria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Felipe Clemente
43' Event
Cabralzinho
55' Event
Felipe Clemente

AI Match Summary

Ceilandia in this Brasiliense 2024 matchup, with the score ending 6-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Ceilandia
30%
Draws
0%
Santa Maria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ceilandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ceilandia lately — more wins on the board than Santa Maria.
  • Model gives Ceilandia a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ceilandia have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 68%
Santa Maria Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ceilandia Santa Maria
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 14 6
Draws 9 4
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1.5 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.09 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 3, 2024 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Santa Maria
6:0
Feb 11, 2023 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Ceilandia
0:1
Jan 26, 2022 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Ceilandia
2:3
Apr 21, 2021 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Santa Maria
3:0
Feb 23, 2019 Brasiliense
Santa Maria vs Ceilandia
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Clemente
2 Goals
Assists Leader da Silva Lima F. R.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Santa Maria Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ceilandia 95 / 100
Santa Maria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ceilandia Santa Maria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ceilandia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceilandia's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Defensive concern: Santa Maria conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Santa Maria registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ceilandia VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ceilandia

(Home)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 7

Santa Maria

(Away)
10 Mar
Capital
7 : 1
Santa Maria
03 Mar
Santa Maria
0 : 4
Planaltina
25 Feb
Real Brasilia
1 : 0
Santa Maria
18 Feb
Santa Maria
0 : 5
Gama
08 Feb
Paranoa
1 : 0
Santa Maria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Capital 9 7 1 1 24:3 22
2 Ceilandia 9 6 2 1 20:8 20
3 Gama 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
4 Brasiliense 9 6 1 2 15:6 19
5 Paranoa 9 5 3 1 13:8 18
6 Real Brasilia 9 2 2 5 9:14 8
7 Samambaia 9 2 1 6 8:13 7
8 Ceilandense 9 2 1 6 9:19 7
9 Planaltina 9 1 1 7 5:19 4
10 Santa Maria 9 1 0 8 3:28 3
Promotion - Brasiliense 2024 (Play Offs)