Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Celano vs Castelfidardo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2014/2015
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2014/2015 game between Celano and Castelfidardo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Celano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Celano
30%
Draws
47%
Castelfidardo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castelfidardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Castelfidardo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Celano a 23% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Celano Clean Sheet 20%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celano Castelfidardo
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 6
Draws 5 5
Losses 21 20
Goals Scored 0.73 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.93
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2015 Serie D - Group F
Celano vs Castelfidardo
1:0
Sep 28, 2014 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Celano
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celano 49 / 100
Castelfidardo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celano Castelfidardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castelfidardo let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Castelfidardo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Celano found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

- VS Castelfidardo
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Celano

(Home)
10 May
Celano
0 : 1
Vis Pesaro
03 May
Matelica
1 : 1
Celano
26 Apr
Celano
0 : 1
Campobasso
19 Apr
Fermana
1 : 0
Celano
12 Apr
Celano
0 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 6

Castelfidardo

(Away)
03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2
AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1
Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0
Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2
Maceratese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maceratese 34 22 12 0 61:22 78
2 Fano 34 22 8 4 60:25 74
3 Sambenedettese 34 18 9 7 71:40 63
4 Campobasso 34 15 12 7 49:42 57
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 13 8 59:46 52
6 Calcio Chieti 34 12 14 8 52:46 50
7 Civitanovese Calcio 34 13 11 10 56:51 50
8 Matelica 34 11 12 11 36:34 45
9 Giulianova 34 10 15 9 44:43 45
10 Fermana 34 11 9 14 37:44 42
11 Jesina 34 10 12 12 40:38 42
12 Termoli 34 10 9 15 31:53 39
13 Recanatese 34 9 12 13 37:44 39
14 Amiternina 34 9 11 14 30:45 38
15 Castelfidardo 34 7 10 17 25:49 31
16 Agnonese 34 8 7 19 31:51 31
17 Vis Pesaro 34 6 11 17 35:45 29
18 Celano 34 4 5 25 23:59 17
Promotion - Serie D - Winners stage 2014/2015 (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2014/2015 (Play Out)