Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés

Neza FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Celaya play Neza FC in the Liga Premier Serie A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Celaya averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Neza FC averaged 1.07 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Celaya won 1, Neza FC won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 1, 2026 ended 6:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.94 for Celaya and 1.31 for Neza FC. This points to a Celaya double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%

Celaya

22%

Draws

29%

Neza FC

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Celaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

Celaya picked up more points recently compared to Neza FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.94 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 60%

Over 3.5 Goals 36%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Celaya Clean Sheet 18%

Neza FC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Celaya	Neza FC
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	15	9
Draws	6	3
Losses	9	18
Goals Scored	1.8	1.07
Goals Conceded	1.27	2.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	4.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Celaya vs Neza FC

Possession: 59% - 43% Cards: 3 - 3

6:0

Sep 14, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Neza FC vs Celaya

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 1 - 2

3:2

Mar 17, 2013 Liga de Expansion MX

Neza FC vs Celaya

Possession: 40% - 48% Cards: 4 - 0

1:1

Oct 7, 2012 Liga de Expansion MX

Celaya vs Neza FC

Possession: 44% - 46% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Apr 8, 2012 Liga de Expansion MX

Celaya vs Neza FC

Possession: 44% - 49% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celaya 48 / 100

Neza FC 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Celaya Neza FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Celaya or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19.6%

2.44

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Celaya attacking → ← attacking Neza FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celaya scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Neza FC let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Celaya went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Neza FC lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 30

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17