Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Celaya vs Tapachula

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés, Celaya
Celaya Logo

Celaya

Sun, Feb 15, 2026
3 - 2
01:00 AM
Tapachula Logo

Tapachula

Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Varela J.
33' Event
Medellin S.
39' Event
Vazquez A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Celaya in this Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Celaya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Celaya
30%
Draws
33%
Tapachula
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Celaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Tapachula haven't matched Celaya's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Celaya a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Celaya Clean Sheet 68%
Tapachula Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celaya Tapachula
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 14
Draws 6 2
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.86 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Celaya vs Tapachula
3:2
Sep 28, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A
Tapachula vs Celaya
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Varela J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Medellin S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Tapachula Compare

Top Goalscorer Vazquez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vidal G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celaya 50 / 100
Tapachula 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celaya Tapachula

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celaya Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Celaya scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Tapachula has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Celaya has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Celaya VS Tapachula
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Celaya

(Home)
26 Apr
Cimarrones de Sonora
2 : 2
Celaya
23 Apr
Celaya
2 : 1
Cimarrones de Sonora
18 Apr
Leones Negros 2
1 : 2
Celaya
16 Apr
Celaya
5 : 0
Leones Negros 2
12 Apr
Celaya
1 : 1
Jaguares De Chiapas
Page 1 of 6

Tapachula

(Away)
19 Apr
Tapachula
1 : 1
Tritones Vallarta
15 Apr
Tritones Vallarta
1 : 0
Tapachula
12 Apr
Tapachula
4 : 0
Dragones Toluca
28 Mar
Canoneros FC
1 : 2
Tapachula
21 Mar
Tapachula
2 : 1
Pioneros
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alacranes de Durango 26 21 2 3 71:16 74
2 Tigres de Alica 26 17 3 6 46:25 56
3 Cimarrones de Sonora 26 15 7 4 46:19 54
4 Leones Negros 2 26 16 2 8 42:26 53
5 Tecos 26 14 4 8 49:34 49
6 Tritones Vallarta 26 15 1 10 32:27 46
7 Mineros de Fresnillo 26 11 4 11 40:41 39
8 Los Cabos United 26 11 3 12 37:40 37
9 Guerreros de Autlan 26 8 5 13 38:42 32
10 UA Zacatecas 26 8 4 14 32:49 29
11 Ensenada FC 26 8 2 16 30:55 28
12 Reboceros de La Piedad 26 7 1 18 39:66 23
13 Zapotlanejo 26 6 1 19 39:73 21
14 Colima FC 26 4 3 19 24:52 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Apodaca 26 21 2 3 47:19 66
2 FC Santiago 26 14 7 5 43:21 51
3 Zacatepec 26 12 8 6 29:15 45
4 Halcones de Zapopan 26 11 6 9 44:27 44
5 Calor De San Pedro 26 12 7 7 37:26 44
6 Gavilanes de Matamoros 26 12 5 9 31:22 44
7 Lobos ULMX 26 11 6 9 33:28 40
8 Correcaminos 2 26 9 7 10 27:25 36
9 Chilpancingo 26 9 8 9 33:41 35
10 Cordobes FC 26 8 6 12 29:30 30
11 Zitacuaro 26 6 10 10 22:31 28
12 CS Canamy 26 5 8 13 33:53 26
13 Ciervos 26 4 4 18 20:50 18
14 Atletico Hidalgo 26 4 4 18 22:62 16
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing de Veracruz 24 21 3 0 55:9 71
2 Deportiva Venados 24 15 4 5 61:25 52
3 Tapachula 24 13 0 11 51:35 44
4 Celaya 24 12 4 8 42:32 43
5 Inter Playa Del Carmen 24 13 4 7 35:28 42
6 Montaneses 24 12 2 10 35:28 38
7 Pioneros 24 10 3 11 35:35 35
8 Jaguares De Chiapas 24 9 4 11 33:32 34
9 Heroes de Zaci 24 10 2 12 33:46 34
10 Chapulineros 24 5 8 11 21:33 23
11 Canoneros FC 24 7 1 16 25:49 22
12 Neza FC 24 5 2 17 25:73 19
13 Dragones Toluca 24 4 3 17 21:47 17
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)