Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Celle Varazze vs Lavagnese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
D'Antoni R.
52' Event
Insolito G.
57' Event
Capra E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Celle Varazze and Lavagnese finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Celle Varazze.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Celle Varazze
15%
Draws
5%
Lavagnese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Celle Varazze

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Celle Varazze carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Celle Varazze taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Celle Varazze Clean Sheet 68%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celle Varazze Lavagnese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 4
Draws 8 10
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.23 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Lavagnese
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Celle Varazze
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celle Varazze Compare

Top Goalscorer Insolito G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Capra E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lavagnese Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Antoni R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celle Varazze 95 / 100
Lavagnese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celle Varazze Lavagnese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lavagnese conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Celle Varazze remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Celle Varazze's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Celle Varazze VS Lavagnese
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Celle Varazze

(Home)
03 May
Imperia Calcio
0 : 1
Celle Varazze
26 Apr
Celle Varazze
1 : 0
Sestri Levante
19 Apr
Saluzzo
0 : 1
Celle Varazze
12 Apr
Celle Varazze
2 : 0
Varese FC
02 Apr
Derthona FbC
0 : 3
Celle Varazze
Page 1 of 6

Lavagnese

(Away)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)