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Celle Varazze vs Sestri Levante Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Balan G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Celle Varazze and Sestri Levante finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Celle Varazze.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Celle Varazze
15%
Draws
85%
Sestri Levante
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sestri Levante

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Sestri Levante carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Sestri Levante taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Celle Varazze Clean Sheet 18%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celle Varazze Sestri Levante
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Celle Varazze vs Sestri Levante
1:0
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Celle Varazze
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Celle Varazze Compare

Top Goalscorer Balan G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sestri Levante Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celle Varazze 23 / 100
Sestri Levante 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celle Varazze Sestri Levante

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sestri Levante Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sestri Levante conceded in 81% of 31 recent games.

Celle Varazze's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Difficult form: Sestri Levante registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Celle Varazze VS Sestri Levante
0.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
38% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Celle Varazze

(Home)
04 Oct
Celle Varazze
0 : 4
Chisola
20 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 2
Ligorna
16 Sept
Saluzzo
3 : 1
Celle Varazze
12 Sept
Sanremese
1 : 0
Celle Varazze
06 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 1
Derthona FbC
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Sestri Levante

(Away)
04 Oct
Borgosesia Calcio
0 : 1
Sestri Levante
27 Sept
Sestri Levante
1 : 2
AS Biellese
20 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 1
Sestri Levante
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1
Sestri Levante
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)