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Celoricense vs Vila Mea - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Celoricense host Vila Mea in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group A. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Recent numbers: Celoricense at 0.97 goals for, 1.03 against; Vila Mea at 1.23 for, 1.06 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (0.88 - 0.63) back Celoricense to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Celoricense
15%
Draws
37%
Vila Mea
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Celoricense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Celoricense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Vila Mea are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Celoricense Clean Sheet 20%
Vila Mea Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Celoricense Vila Mea
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 11 8
Draws 10 14
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 0.97 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Celoricense 24 / 100
Vila Mea 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Celoricense Vila Mea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Mea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Mea has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Solid form: Celoricense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Celoricense found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Difficult form: Vila Mea registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Celoricense VS Vila Mea
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
25% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Celoricense

(Home)
20 Sept
GD Braganca
6 : 1
Celoricense
13 Sept
Chaves B
1 : 0
Celoricense
06 Sept
Celoricense
2 : 1
Tirsense
30 Aug
Celoricense
1 : 0
Pevidem
23 Aug
Maria de Fonte
0 : 1
Celoricense
Page 1 of 6

Vila Mea

(Away)
13 Sept
Vila Mea
4 : 0
Vinhais
06 Sept
Rebordosa
1 : 0
Vila Mea
30 Aug
Maia Lidador
1 : 0
Vila Mea
23 Aug
Vila Mea
1 : 1
AD Limianos
16 Aug
Ponte da Barca
1 : 2
Vila Mea
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 GD Braganca 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Tirsense 4 3 0 1 7:2 9
3 Chaves B 4 3 0 1 5:4 9
4 Braga B 4 2 2 0 8:3 8
5 AD Limianos 4 2 2 0 8:5 8
6 Vila Mea 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
7 Celoricense 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
8 CDC Montalegre 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
9 Rebordosa 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
10 Brito 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
11 Ponte da Barca 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
12 Maria de Fonte 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
13 Maia Lidador 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Vinhais 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)