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Cenicero vs Varea

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Diaz M.
89' Event
Padin M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Cenicero
35%
Draws
39%
Varea
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Varea have won more games recently than Cenicero.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Varea taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Cenicero Clean Sheet 20%
Varea Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cenicero Varea
Matches Played 28 34
Wins 1 20
Draws 4 9
Losses 23 5
Goals Scored 0.32 1.56
Goals Conceded 2.43 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Cenicero vs Varea
1:1
May 1, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Cenicero vs Varea
0:1
Jan 9, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Cenicero
5:1
Mar 20, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs Cenicero
2:2
Nov 7, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Cenicero vs Varea
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cenicero Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Varea Compare

Top Goalscorer Padin M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cenicero 20 / 100
Varea 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cenicero Varea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Cenicero's goal record stands at 32% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Varea has conceded goals in 53% of their last 34 outings.

Cenicero has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cenicero VS Varea
0.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
25% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cenicero

(Home)
13 Sept
Comillas CF
0 : 0
Cenicero
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
01 May
Cenicero
0 : 1
Varea
24 Apr
Haro Deportivo
5 : 0
Cenicero
14 Apr
Cenicero
0 : 4
Oyonesa
Page 1 of 6

Varea

(Away)
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
24 May
Varea
0 : 2
Oyonesa
17 May
Oyonesa
0 : 0
Varea
10 May
Varea
0 : 1
Oyonesa
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Berceo 2 2 0 0 9:1 6
2 CDFC La Calzada 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
3 CD Calahorra 3 2 0 1 8:5 6
4 Anguiano 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
5 Comillas CF 3 1 2 0 3:2 5
6 San Marcial 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
7 Haro Deportivo 2 1 1 0 5:4 4
8 Alfaro 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
9 Pradejon 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
10 Yague 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
11 Oyonesa 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
12 Casalarreina CF 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
13 Varea 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
14 Cenicero 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
15 Calasancio 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
16 Agoncillo 3 0 2 1 5:7 2
17 Vianes 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
18 River Ebro 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)