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Central Esp. vs Progreso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Palermo, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Silva J. In: Acosta N.
Out: Silva J.
58' Event
Mendez I.
66'
Sub
Alvarez E. In: Trasante G.
Out: Alvarez E.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Central Esp. and Progreso finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Central Esp..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Central Esp.
15%
Draws
85%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Progreso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Progreso haven't matched Central Esp.'s recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Progreso's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Central Esp. Clean Sheet 15%
Progreso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Central Esp. Progreso
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 3
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Central Esp. vs Progreso
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Central Esp.
0:3
Sep 25, 2022 Segunda Division
Central Esp. vs Progreso
1:1
Jun 25, 2022 Segunda Division
Progreso vs Central Esp.
1:1
Dec 9, 2017 Segunda Division
Central Esp. vs Progreso
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Central Esp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendez I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Central Esp. 10 / 100
Progreso 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Central Esp. Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progreso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progreso let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Central Esp. scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Progreso registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Central Esp. VS Progreso
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Central Esp.

(Home)
18 Oct
Danubio
1 : 0
Central Esp.
15 Oct
Central Esp.
0 : 6
Danubio
11 Oct
Central Esp.
0 : 1
Club Nacional
03 Oct
Maldonado
3 : 0
Central Esp.
27 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 2
Liverpool M.
Page 1 of 6

Progreso

(Away)
17 Oct
Progreso
2 : 0
Juventud
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Progreso
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 11 7 3 1 19:8 24
2 Club Nacional 11 7 2 2 17:11 23
3 Montevideo City 11 7 1 3 21:12 22
4 Penarol 11 6 3 2 16:8 20
5 Maldonado 11 5 3 3 16:9 18
6 CA Cerro 11 5 3 3 13:14 18
7 Juventud 11 4 5 2 12:8 17
8 Progreso 11 5 1 5 12:13 16
9 Racing Montevideo 11 4 3 4 12:10 15
10 Boston River 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
11 Wanderers 11 4 3 4 13:17 15
12 Danubio 11 2 4 5 5:11 10
13 Albion 11 3 0 8 12:19 9
14 Defensor Sp. 11 2 2 7 11:20 8
15 Cerro Largo 11 0 6 5 7:14 6
16 Central Esp. 11 1 2 8 5:18 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)