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Central Esp. vs Rocha

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2021
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Villalpando J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division 2021 game between Central Esp. and Rocha finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Central Esp..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Central Esp.
30%
Draws
35%
Rocha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Central Esp. come out ahead of Rocha on wins alone.
  • Central Esp. are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Central Esp. Clean Sheet 68%
Rocha Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Central Esp. Rocha
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 9 3
Losses 11 19
Goals Scored 1.2 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 22, 2021 Segunda Division
Central Esp. vs Rocha
1:0
Jun 10, 2021 Segunda Division
Rocha vs Central Esp.
3:2
Oct 26, 2020 Segunda Division
Central Esp. vs Rocha
3:0
Aug 31, 2020 Segunda Division
Rocha vs Central Esp.
1:1
Jun 5, 2016 Segunda Division
Rocha vs Central Esp.
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Central Esp. Compare

Top Goalscorer Villalpando J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Rocha Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Central Esp. 68 / 100
Rocha 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Central Esp. Rocha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Central Esp. Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Central Esp. scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Rocha's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Central Esp. went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Central Esp. VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Central Esp.

(Home)
21 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 4
Montevideo City
17 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Club Oriental De Futbol
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0
Central Esp.
09 Sept
Racing Montevideo
2 : 4
Central Esp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1
Defensor Sp.
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Rocha

(Away)
11 Aug
Potencia
2 : 0
Rocha
21 Sept
Lavalleja (Minas)
:
Rocha
23 Aug
Rocha
0 : 3
Rentistas
03 Aug
Rocha
2 : 1
Huracan Buceo
20 Jul
Rocha
2 : 0
Paso de la Arena
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albion 22 13 5 4 31:18 44
2 Danubio 22 12 5 5 24:14 41
3 Racing Montevideo 22 10 8 4 27:16 38
4 Defensor Sp. 22 11 4 7 33:21 37
5 CA Cerro 22 10 7 5 26:20 37
6 Central Esp. 22 9 6 7 29:29 33
7 Juventud 22 8 5 9 27:27 29
8 Uruguay Montevideo FC 22 7 4 11 21:27 25
9 Atenas 22 5 9 8 20:17 24
10 Rampla Juniors 22 5 6 11 14:32 21
11 Villa Teresa 22 4 6 12 17:32 18
12 Rocha 22 4 3 15 20:36 15
Promotion - Primera Division 2022 (Apertura)
Promotion - Segunda Division 2021 (Play Offs)