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Central Valley Fuego vs Lexington

USA USA

USL League One 2024 Fresno State Soccer Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Lancaster C.
Assist: Diouf A.
40'
Knight A.
42'
Heckenberg C.

AI Match Summary

Lexington in this USL League One 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lexington.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Central Valley Fuego
33%
Draws
40%
Lexington
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Lexington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Lexington have won more games recently than Central Valley Fuego.
  • Lexington are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lexington have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Central Valley Fuego Clean Sheet 16%
Lexington Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Central Valley Fuego Lexington
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 15
Draws 3 4
Losses 20 12
Goals Scored 0 1.88
Goals Conceded 0 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2024 USL League One
Lexington vs Central Valley Fuego
7:1
Aug 17, 2024 USL League One
Central Valley Fuego vs Lexington
1:3
May 11, 2024 USL Cup
Lexington vs Central Valley Fuego
3:2
Sep 11, 2023 USL League One
Central Valley Fuego vs Lexington
2:2
Aug 12, 2023 USL League One
Lexington vs Central Valley Fuego
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Central Valley Fuego Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrera J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Lexington Compare

Top Goalscorer Lancaster C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diouf A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Central Valley Fuego 28 / 100
Lexington 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Central Valley Fuego Lexington

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEX Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lexington's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Central Valley Fuego found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Central Valley Fuego has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lexington
0 Goals Scored 1.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Union Omaha22153447:2448
2Northern Colorado22125534:1841
3Forward Madison22109335:1839
4Greenville Triumph22114739:2837
5One Knoxville2298523:1635
6Charlotte Independence2297637:3134
7Spokane Velocity2276926:3527
8Richmond Kickers22661025:3424
9Lexington22561133:4221
10South Georgia Tormenta22481033:4220
11Chattanooga Red Wolves22531428:4818
12Central Valley Fuego22531427:5118