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Cerezo Osaka vs Dortmund Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly Yanmar Stadium Nagai, Osaka
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Sakuragawa S.
Assist: Nakamura T.
35'
Sub
Mane F. In: Riedl J.
Out: Mane F.
46'
Sub
Nakamura K. In: Abe K.
Out: Nakamura K.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Cerezo Osaka and Dortmund finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Cerezo Osaka.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Cerezo Osaka
20%
Draws
52%
Dortmund
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dortmund

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Dortmund come out ahead of Cerezo Osaka on wins alone.
  • Model gives Dortmund a 52% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Cerezo Osaka Clean Sheet 10%
Dortmund Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerezo Osaka Dortmund
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 19
Draws 3 2
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.64 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Club Friendly
Cerezo Osaka vs Dortmund
1:0
Jul 24, 2024 Club Friendly
Cerezo Osaka vs Dortmund
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerezo Osaka Compare

Top Goalscorer Sakuragawa S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dortmund Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerezo Osaka 10 / 100
Dortmund 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerezo Osaka Dortmund

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Dortmund Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerezo Osaka found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Dortmund has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Cerezo Osaka went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cerezo Osaka VS Dortmund
1 Goals Scored 2.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerezo Osaka

(Home)
29 Sept
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 2
Cerezo Osaka
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1
Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 : 1
Cerezo Osaka
06 Sept
Cerezo Osaka
0 : 0
Verdy
02 Sept
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0
Kashiwa Reysol
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Dortmund

(Away)
19 Sept
VfB Stuttgart
0 : 1
Dortmund
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0
Paderborn
08 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 2
Villarreal
05 Sept
Hoffenheim
2 : 3
Dortmund
01 Sept
HEBC Hamburg
0 : 5
Dortmund
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