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Cerrito vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2025 Estadio Charrúa
Our Tip

Match Events

59' Event
Cartagena S.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division 2025 game between Cerrito and Maldonado finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Cerrito
11%
Draws
80%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maldonado come out ahead of Cerrito on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Maldonado's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Maldonado here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 11%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerrito Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 16
Draws 11 7
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.75 2
Goals Conceded 1.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 19, 2025 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Maldonado
0:1
Jul 27, 2025 Segunda Division
Maldonado vs Cerrito
1:0
Aug 11, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerrito
2:1
Feb 21, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerrito vs Maldonado
0:3
Nov 25, 2021 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Cerrito
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cerrito Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Cartagena S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerrito 10 / 100
Maldonado 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerrito Maldonado

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerrito scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Maldonado conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Cerrito stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cerrito VS Maldonado
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Albion26155633:1750
2Colon26138532:1747
3Central Esp.261210429:1646
4Atenas26135835:2344
5Maldonado26117831:2140
6Club Oriental De Futbol26108832:2938
7Tacuarembo26910728:2537
8Fenix26107931:3037
9Rentistas261061033:3336
10La Luz26512926:3627
11Rampla Juniors25751322:2826
12Cerrito26581320:3623
13Club Atletico Artigas254101128:4122
14Uruguay Montevideo FC26451716:4417