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Stadium Background

Cerro Largo vs Boston River - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cerro Largo host Boston River in the Liga AUF Uruguaya. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Boston River have shipped 1.41 goals a game lately, while Cerro Largo have conceded 1.07 and scored 0.89. Past meetings favor Boston River slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 23, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 1.31, favoring Boston River. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Cerro Largo
20%
Draws
57%
Boston River
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Boston River

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Boston River carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 18%
Boston River Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cerro Largo Boston River
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 6 13
Draws 11 5
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 0.89 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Boston River
3:0
Apr 20, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Cerro Largo
1:0
Oct 11, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Boston River
2:2
Apr 13, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Cerro Largo
1:0
Nov 3, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Cerro Largo
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cerro Largo 32 / 100
Boston River 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cerro Largo Boston River

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Boston River Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cerro Largo scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Boston River has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Cerro Largo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Cerro Largo VS Boston River
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cerro Largo

(Home)
16 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 1
Cerro Largo
11 Oct
Cerro Largo
0 : 1
Albion
04 Oct
Danubio
2 : 1
Cerro Largo
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0
Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2
Club Nacional
Page 1 of 6

Boston River

(Away)
17 Oct
Boston River
1 : 0
Defensor Sp.
14 Oct
Boston River
1 : 0
River Plate Montevideo
10 Oct
Wanderers
1 : 3
Boston River
04 Oct
Boston River
0 : 0
Juventud
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1
Boston River
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 11 7 3 1 19:8 24
2 Montevideo City 11 7 1 3 21:12 22
3 Penarol 11 6 3 2 16:8 20
4 Club Nacional 10 6 2 2 14:9 20
5 Maldonado 10 5 3 2 14:6 18
6 CA Cerro 11 5 3 3 13:14 18
7 Juventud 11 4 5 2 12:8 17
8 Progreso 11 5 1 5 12:13 16
9 Racing Montevideo 11 4 3 4 12:10 15
10 Boston River 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
11 Wanderers 11 4 3 4 13:17 15
12 Danubio 11 2 4 5 5:11 10
13 Albion 11 3 0 8 12:19 9
14 Defensor Sp. 11 2 2 7 11:20 8
15 Cerro Largo 11 0 6 5 7:14 6
16 Central Esp. 11 1 2 8 5:18 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)