Sport Picks
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp. - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo 
Match Events
23'
23'
Ramos N.
26'
26'
Agazzi L.
28'
28'
Prado A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cerro Largo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Cerro Largo have won more games recently than Defensor Sp..
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 68%
Defensor Sp. Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cerro Largo | Defensor Sp. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 11 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 9, 2026 Copa Uruguay
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
1:1
Aug 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
1:1
Jul 13, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Defensor Sp. vs Cerro Largo
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sp.
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cerro Largo Compare
Top Goalscorer de Luca A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Defensor Sp. Compare
Top Goalscorer Agazzi L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cerro Largo 41 / 100
Defensor Sp. 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cerro Largo Defensor Sp.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cerro Largo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Cerro Largo scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Defensive concern: Defensor Sp. conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.
Away concern: Defensor Sp. has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Cerro Largo VS Defensor Sp.
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Cerro Largo
(Home) 21 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0 Cerro Largo
16 Oct
CA Cerro
1 : 1 Cerro Largo
11 Oct
Cerro Largo
0 : 1 Albion
04 Oct
Danubio
2 : 1 Cerro Largo
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0 Rentistas
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Cerro Largo
0 : 1 Albion
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0 Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2 Club Nacional
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0 Central Esp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 3
Defensor Sp.
(Away) 17 Oct
Boston River
1 : 0 Defensor Sp.
10 Oct
Defensor Sp.
2 : 3 CA Cerro
03 Oct
Albion
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
30 Sept
Defensor Sp.
0 : 1 Plaza Colonia
27 Sept
Defensor Sp.
1 : 0 Danubio
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Boston River
1 : 0 Defensor Sp.
03 Oct
Albion
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2 Defensor Sp.
09 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
06 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 1 Defensor Sp.
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool M. | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | 24 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 23 |
| 3 | Montevideo City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 22 |
| 4 | Penarol | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16:8 | 20 |
| 5 | Maldonado | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:9 | 18 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | 18 |
| 7 | Juventud | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12:8 | 17 |
| 8 | Progreso | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12:13 | 16 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 10 | Boston River | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14:13 | 15 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13:17 | 15 |
| 12 | Danubio | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5:11 | 10 |
| 13 | Albion | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 12:19 | 9 |
| 14 | Defensor Sp. | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11:20 | 8 |
| 15 | Cerro Largo | 11 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 16 | Central Esp. | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5:18 | 5 |
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)
