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Certaldo vs Pistoiese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Gozzerini M.
49' Event
Akammadu F.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Certaldo in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Certaldo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Certaldo
20%
Draws
57%
Pistoiese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pistoiese lately — more wins on the board than Certaldo.
  • Win probability leans Pistoiese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Certaldo Clean Sheet 11%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Certaldo Pistoiese
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 6 25
Draws 6 8
Losses 18 7
Goals Scored 0.73 1.77
Goals Conceded 1.63 0.65
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Certaldo vs Pistoiese
2:0
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Certaldo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Certaldo Compare

Top Goalscorer Gozzerini M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Pistoiese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Certaldo 10 / 100
Pistoiese 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Certaldo Pistoiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Certaldo's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Pistoiese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 40 matches.

Certaldo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Pistoiese
0 Goals Scored 2.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Certaldo

(Home)
05 May
Carpi
5 : 1
Certaldo
28 Apr
Certaldo
3 : 2
Aglianese Calcio
21 Apr
Ravenna
3 : 0
Certaldo
14 Apr
Certaldo
1 : 6
Corticella
07 Apr
Victor San Marino
1 : 1
Certaldo
Page 1 of 6

Pistoiese

(Away)
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
06 Sept
Pistoiese
2 : 0
Solbiatese
22 Aug
Pistoiese
0 : 1
Siena
14 Aug
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0
Pistoiese
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carpi 32 21 5 6 66:31 68
2 Ravenna 32 19 9 4 56:13 66
3 Corticella 32 18 3 11 59:40 57
4 Victor San Marino 32 17 6 9 44:37 57
5 Lentigione 32 16 8 8 49:31 56
6 Forli FC 32 16 7 9 48:35 55
7 Prato 32 12 8 12 37:41 44
8 Sangiuliano City 32 12 8 12 32:37 44
9 Fanfulla 32 11 10 11 28:35 43
10 Sant'Angelo 32 11 8 13 47:44 41
11 Aglianese Calcio 32 11 8 13 32:39 41
12 Imolese 32 12 6 14 31:33 40
13 Sammaurese 32 11 4 17 37:48 37
14 SCD Progresso 32 11 4 17 27:43 37
15 San Donnino 32 5 10 17 32:58 25
16 Certaldo 32 6 6 20 22:55 24
17 Mezzolara 32 5 6 21 23:50 21
18 Pistoiese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)