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Cesena vs Spezia Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Shpendi C.
Assist: Frabotta G.
15'
Bellemo A.
17' Event
Artistico G.
Assist: Bellemo A.

AI Match Summary

Spezia in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Spezia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Cesena
35%
Draws
44%
Spezia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Spezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Spezia have won more games recently than Cesena.
  • Win probability leans Spezia's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Cesena Clean Sheet 12%
Spezia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cesena Spezia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 13
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.28 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Serie B
Cesena vs Spezia
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 Serie B
Spezia vs Cesena
1:2
Mar 15, 2025 Serie B
Cesena vs Spezia
0:0
Sep 1, 2024 Serie B
Spezia vs Cesena
2:1
Mar 3, 2018 Serie B
Spezia vs Cesena
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cesena Compare

Top Goalscorer Shpendi C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Berti T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Spezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Artistico G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Aurelio G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cesena 14 / 100
Spezia 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cesena Spezia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spezia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Cesena stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Cesena scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Spezia has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

Cesena VS Spezia
1.25 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Cesena

(Home)
18 Sept
Juve Stabia
1 : 1
Cesena
12 Sept
Cesena
2 : 2
Cremonese
06 Sept
Cesena
1 : 1
Mantova
29 Aug
Entella
1 : 2
Cesena
23 Aug
Cesena
1 : 1
Sampdoria
Page 1 of 6

Spezia

(Away)
04 Oct
Reggiana
0 : 1
Spezia
27 Sept
Pescara
1 : 2
Spezia
21 Sept
Spezia
3 : 1
Vis Pesaro
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
12 Sept
Spezia
2 : 0
Livorno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)