Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Restelo

CF Os Belenenses

1 - 2

Amarante FC

Our Tip

Match Events

Ventura

40'

Machado J.

46'

Sub

Horta Leitao D. In: Bruno L.

Out: Horta Leitao D.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between CF Os Belenenses and Amarante FC finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

CF Os Belenenses

44%

Draws

20%

Amarante FC

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Amarante FC carry the better recent record into this one.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%

CF Os Belenenses Clean Sheet 19%

Amarante FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	CF Os Belenenses	Amarante FC
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	15	17
Draws	7	7
Losses	6	5
Goals Scored	1.25	1.5
Goals Conceded	1	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Liga 3

Amarante FC vs CF Os Belenenses

Possession: 49% - 49% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Mar 1, 2026 Liga 3

CF Os Belenenses vs Amarante FC

Possession: 48% - 51% Cards: 0 - 3

1:2

May 10, 2025 Liga 3

Amarante FC vs CF Os Belenenses

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 1 - 3

1:4

Mar 15, 2025 Liga 3

CF Os Belenenses vs Amarante FC

Possession: 54% - 49% Cards: 3 - 2

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

CF Os Belenenses Compare

Top Goalscorer Souza E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ventura

1 Goals

Assists Leader Saint-Louis J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

CF Os Belenenses 36 / 100

Amarante FC 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

CF Os Belenenses Amarante FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AMA Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CF Os Belenenses scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

CF Os Belenenses went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Amarante FC conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

CF Os Belenenses VS Amarante FC

1.25 Goals Scored 1.5

1 Goals Conceded 0.63

63% Over 1.5 50%

50% Over 2.5 38%

25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Amarante FC	14	9	4	1	22:11	31
2	Academica	14	8	4	2	23:13	28
3	CF Os Belenenses	14	7	5	2	25:16	26
4	Mafra	14	5	2	7	17:24	17
5	Vitoria Guimaraes B	14	4	5	5	16:17	17
6	Varzim	14	4	2	8	13:19	14
7	Santarem	14	2	4	8	13:20	10
8	Trofense	14	2	4	8	7:16	10