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Changwon vs Dangjin Citizen

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Lee Jong-Hun

AI Match Summary

The K3 League game between Changwon and Dangjin Citizen finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Changwon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Changwon
22%
Draws
60%
Dangjin Citizen
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Dangjin Citizen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Changwon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Dangjin Citizen are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular K3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Changwon have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Changwon Clean Sheet 19%
Dangjin Citizen Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Changwon Dangjin Citizen
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 K3 League
Dangjin Citizen vs Changwon
1:2
Mar 8, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Dangjin Citizen
1:0
Aug 26, 2022 K3 League
Changwon vs Dangjin Citizen
2:1
May 1, 2022 K3 League
Dangjin Citizen vs Changwon
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Changwon Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee Jong-Hun
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Dangjin Citizen Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Changwon 20 / 100
Dangjin Citizen 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Changwon Dangjin Citizen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Changwon scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Dangjin Citizen conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Changwon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Changwon VS Dangjin Citizen
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Siheung Citizen17124124:1440
2Pocheon17105230:1535
3Daejeon Korail1794427:1231
4Busan Kyotong1786326:1330
5Changwon1767418:1625
6Dangjin Citizen1764727:2622
7Yeoju Citizen1756620:2221
8Gyeongju KHNP1747623:2419
9Ulsan Citizen1754817:1919
10Gangneung1754815:2619
11Chuncheon1745830:2917
12Yangpyeong1737720:2916
13Mokpo1729614:2515
14Jeonbuk 217161019:409