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Changwon vs Gyeongju KHNP

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Hong J.
63' Event
Lee Jong-Hun
65' Event
Im D.

AI Match Summary

Changwon in this K3 League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Changwon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Changwon
20%
Draws
74%
Gyeongju KHNP
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gyeongju KHNP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Gyeongju KHNP at 1.32 per game, Changwon at 1.3.
  • Model gives Gyeongju KHNP a 74% chance of winning this.
  • Regular K3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Changwon Clean Sheet 13%
Gyeongju KHNP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Changwon Gyeongju KHNP
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 11
Draws 10 11
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.3 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 K3 League
Gyeongju KHNP vs Changwon
2:1
Apr 19, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Gyeongju KHNP
3:2
Oct 4, 2025 K3 League
Gyeongju KHNP vs Changwon
0:0
Jun 7, 2025 K3 League
Changwon vs Gyeongju KHNP
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 K3 League
Gyeongju KHNP vs Changwon
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Changwon Compare

Top Goalscorer Hong J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee Jong-Hun
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Gyeongju KHNP Compare

Top Goalscorer Im D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Yu Shin
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Changwon 11 / 100
Gyeongju KHNP 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Changwon Gyeongju KHNP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gyeongju KHNP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Changwon found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Gyeongju KHNP's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Changwon went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Changwon VS Gyeongju KHNP
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Changwon

(Home)
20 Sept
Gyeongju KHNP
2 : 1
Changwon
13 Sept
Siheung Citizen
3 : 1
Changwon
05 Sept
Changwon
0 : 1
Daejeon Korail
22 Aug
Busan Kyotong
4 : 3
Changwon
26 Jul
Changwon
1 : 1
Jeonbuk 2
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Gyeongju KHNP

(Away)
20 Sept
Gyeongju KHNP
2 : 1
Changwon
12 Sept
Gangneung
0 : 1
Gyeongju KHNP
05 Sept
Ulsan Citizen
1 : 2
Gyeongju KHNP
22 Aug
Yangpyeong
3 : 3
Gyeongju KHNP
25 Jul
Gyeongju KHNP
1 : 0
Siheung Citizen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Siheung Citizen 22 16 4 2 35:19 52
2 Pocheon 22 13 6 3 38:19 45
3 Daejeon Korail 22 11 5 6 31:17 38
4 Busan Kyotong 22 10 7 5 39:26 37
5 Gyeongju KHNP 22 8 8 6 32:29 32
6 Dangjin Citizen 22 9 4 9 44:36 31
7 Chuncheon 22 8 5 9 39:35 29
8 Ulsan Citizen 22 8 4 10 23:24 28
9 Gangneung 22 7 6 9 20:30 27
10 Changwon 22 6 8 8 24:27 26
11 Yeoju Citizen 22 6 7 9 24:28 25
12 Mokpo 22 4 9 9 19:35 21
13 Yangpyeong 22 3 8 11 27:43 17
14 Jeonbuk 2 22 1 7 14 22:49 10
Relegation - K3 League (Relegation)