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Changwon vs Ulsan Citizen

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Lee Jong-Hun
55' Event
Ye Byung-Won

AI Match Summary

The K3 League game between Changwon and Ulsan Citizen finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Changwon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Changwon
17%
Draws
70%
Ulsan Citizen
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Ulsan Citizen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Changwon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Ulsan Citizen a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular K3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Changwon have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Changwon Clean Sheet 27%
Ulsan Citizen Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Changwon Ulsan Citizen
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 14 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.38 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Ulsan Citizen
2:0
Aug 23, 2025 K3 League
Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 K3 League
Changwon vs Ulsan Citizen
2:1
Sep 7, 2024 K3 League
Changwon vs Ulsan Citizen
1:0
May 11, 2024 K3 League
Ulsan Citizen vs Changwon
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Changwon Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee Jong-Hun
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ye Byung-Won
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Ulsan Citizen Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Changwon 17 / 100
Ulsan Citizen 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Changwon Ulsan Citizen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ULS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Changwon scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Ulsan Citizen let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Changwon remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Changwon VS Ulsan Citizen
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Siheung Citizen17124124:1440
2Pocheon17105230:1535
3Daejeon Korail1794427:1231
4Busan Kyotong1786326:1330
5Changwon1767418:1625
6Dangjin Citizen1764727:2622
7Yeoju Citizen1756620:2221
8Gyeongju KHNP1747623:2419
9Ulsan Citizen1754817:1919
10Gangneung1754815:2619
11Chuncheon1745830:2917
12Yangpyeong1737720:2916
13Mokpo1729614:2515
14Jeonbuk 217161019:409