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Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Jang H.

AI Match Summary

The K3 League game between Changwon and Yeoju Citizen finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Yeoju Citizen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Changwon
30%
Draws
34%
Yeoju Citizen
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Changwon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Changwon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Changwon are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Changwon Clean Sheet 20%
Yeoju Citizen Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Changwon Yeoju Citizen
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
2:2
Mar 21, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
2:1
Jun 14, 2025 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Changwon
1:2
Aug 25, 2024 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Changwon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Yeoju Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Jang H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Changwon 36 / 100
Yeoju Citizen 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Changwon Yeoju Citizen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Yeoju Citizen conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Changwon scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Changwon has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Changwon VS Yeoju Citizen
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Siheung Citizen17124124:1440
2Pocheon17105230:1535
3Daejeon Korail1794427:1231
4Busan Kyotong1786326:1330
5Changwon1767418:1625
6Dangjin Citizen1764727:2622
7Yeoju Citizen1756620:2221
8Gyeongju KHNP1747623:2419
9Ulsan Citizen1754817:1919
10Gangneung1754815:2619
11Chuncheon1745830:2917
12Yangpyeong1737720:2916
13Mokpo1729614:2515
14Jeonbuk 217161019:409