Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Changwon play Yeoju Citizen in the K3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Changwon averaged 1.32 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. Yeoju Citizen averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Changwon won 2, Yeoju Citizen won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 27, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Changwon and 0.69 for Yeoju Citizen. This points to a Changwon double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Changwon
34%
Draws
25%
Yeoju Citizen
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Changwon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Changwon picked up more points recently compared to Yeoju Citizen.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 0.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Changwon Clean Sheet 28%
Yeoju Citizen Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Changwon Yeoju Citizen
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.32 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
2:2
Mar 21, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
0:1
Oct 26, 2025 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
2:1
Jun 14, 2025 K3 League
Yeoju Citizen vs Changwon
1:2
Aug 25, 2024 K3 League
Changwon vs Yeoju Citizen
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Changwon Compare

Top Goalscorer Byeong-beom K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader No Geon-Woo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Yeoju Citizen Compare

Top Goalscorer Ryu Ji-Min
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Changwon 43 / 100
Yeoju Citizen 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Changwon Yeoju Citizen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Changwon or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Changwon attacking → ← attacking Yeoju Citizen

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Changwon scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Yeoju Citizen let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Changwon went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Yeoju Citizen lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 36
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Siheung Citizen16124024:1240
2Pocheon16104229:1434
3Daejeon Korail1694327:1131
4Busan Kyotong1676324:1327
5Changwon1666417:1524
6Dangjin Citizen1663726:2521
7Yeoju Citizen1756620:2221
8Ulsan Citizen1754817:1919
9Gangneung1654714:2419
10Chuncheon1644829:2816
11Gyeongju KHNP1637622:2416
12Yangpyeong1627715:2713
13Mokpo1619612:2412
14Jeonbuk 21616917:359