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Chapadao vs Comercial MS

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
Chapadao Logo

Chapadao

2 - 1
FT
Comercial MS Logo

Comercial MS

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2023 game between Chapadao and Comercial MS finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chapadao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Chapadao
20%
Draws
47%
Comercial MS
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Chapadao carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Comercial MS's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Chapadao Clean Sheet 19%
Comercial MS Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapadao Comercial MS
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.43 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Chapadao
0:1
Feb 18, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Comercial MS
2:1
Mar 2, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Comercial MS
1:0
Feb 10, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Chapadao
3:1
Apr 4, 2021 Sul-Matogrossense
Comercial MS vs Chapadao
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapadao 16 / 100
Comercial MS 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapadao Comercial MS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Comercial MS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Comercial MS conceded in 90% of 31 recent games.

Chapadao scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Chapadao has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Comercial MS
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapadao

(Home)
02 Apr
Ivinhema
2 : 4
Chapadao
26 Mar
Chapadao
0 : 3
Ivinhema
12 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Chapadao
05 Mar
Chapadao
1 : 1
Coxim
03 Mar
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Chapadao
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Comercial MS

(Away)
02 Aug
Comercial MS
2 : 0
Esporte Clube Taveiropolis
25 Jul
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Misto
18 Jul
EC Campo Grande
1 : 3
Comercial MS
11 Jul
Comercial MS
1 : 1
Uniao ABC
06 Jul
Sao Gabriel MS
1 : 3
Comercial MS
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Costa Rica 8 6 1 1 15:6 19
2 Operario MS 8 5 0 3 13:8 15
3 Chapadao 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
4 Coxim 8 2 2 4 4:11 8
5 Comercial MS 8 0 2 6 4:12 2
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dourados 8 6 1 1 11:5 19
2 Ivinhema 8 3 2 3 14:9 11
3 Novoperario 8 3 2 3 11:10 11
4 Aquidauanense 8 3 1 4 9:15 10
5 Operario AC 8 1 2 5 9:15 5
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2023 (Play Offs)