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Chapadao vs Dourados - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022 game between Chapadao and Dourados finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Dourados.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Chapadao
30%
Draws
29%
Dourados
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chapadao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Dourados come out ahead of Chapadao on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Chapadao's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Campeonato Sul-Matogrossense 2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 30%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Chapadao Clean Sheet 18%
Dourados Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Chapadao Dourados
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 13 15
Draws 5 12
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Dourados vs Chapadao
2:0
Apr 3, 2022 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Dourados
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Chapadao 36 / 100
Dourados 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Chapadao Dourados

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapadao's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Dourados has conceded goals in 61% of their last 36 outings.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Chapadao has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Dourados
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Chapadao

(Home)
02 Apr
Ivinhema
2 : 4
Chapadao
26 Mar
Chapadao
0 : 3
Ivinhema
12 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Chapadao
05 Mar
Chapadao
1 : 1
Coxim
03 Mar
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Chapadao
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Dourados

(Away)
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Dourados
3 : 3
Clube de Regatas Aquidauana
21 Feb
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
15 Feb
Dourados
7 : 2
Bataguassu
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